Analysts offer insight into the failure of the so-called “fair tax” amendment.

By Alexandra Arriaga

[Map by Pat Sier. See more here.]

Should Illinois residents who take in more income pay a higher tax rate? At its core, that was the matter at the top of every Illinois voter’s ballot this November. With huge amounts of resources poured into campaigns both for and against, the measure did not acquire the 60% of votes it needed to succeed.

With the final results certified this week, we asked some analysts to help us understand the voting patterns.

Chicago overwhelmingly favored the amendment

As a longtime liberal stronghold, it’s perhaps unsurprising that 71% of Chicago voters said yes. The amendment failed only in the 19th Ward on the far Southwest side and 41st Ward on the far Northwest Side. However, some precincts on the Southwest Side (23rd, 14th and 13th), Bridgeport (11th) and downtown (2nd) voted against the amendment.

“A lot of that is where you have a lot of city employees, police and firemen… who are strongly aligned with the Republican position [against the tax amendment],” said Scott Kennedy, data analyst at the Center for Illinois Politics, a bipartisan group. “You can see a mix of people in conservative areas and affluent areas, who may have been affected by ‘fair tax’ and that behavior pans out.”

The suburbs are more complicated

In metropolitan Chicago, not all Biden voters toed the party line in support of the tax amendment—mostly in affluent areas.

“That is interesting... there are a fair amount of people in our state who maybe subscribe to a certain type of [liberal] principle and practice but when asked personally to contribute to the problems that exist, they opt out,” said Lisa Christensen Gee, director of special initiatives with the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. After all, if the measure passed, anyone making over $100,000 a year would see higher tax rates.

Kennedy pointed out a different anomaly: The tax amendment had pockets of support in some historically conservative suburban areas, such as Schaumburg.

“Twenty years ago that was much more Republican, so not only are you seeing those areas move to Democrats on Biden vs. Trump but also starting to vote like Democrats on matters that aren’t exclusively top of the ticket,” Kennedy said. “[It] shows how suburbs are changing and how much more open they are to Democrats than 20 years ago.”

Downstate voters

Trump only won 57% of downstate voters, while “no” votes on the tax amendment garnered 67% of the vote. There are fewer affluent voters downstate, which means “people that weren’t necessarily going to be affected by the graduated income tax [were] voting two to one against it,” Kennedy said.

These voters were driven less by “economic concerns, but more about trust or who was supporting [the amendment],” he said.

Ralph Martire, executive director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, said the vote shows the conservatism of central, southern and western Illinois, where “even the Democrats” are more conservative. He added that the measure’s proponents failed to properly explain how state government spends its money.

“Current revenue systems will not support our current level of services, much less allow for increases, such as education funding. Those arguments weren’t made enough in central and southern Illinois,” Martire said.

See more City Bureau reporting on the 2020 election and tax amendment.

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